Key takeaways
- The stopgap law funding most federal agencies, H.R. 6500, runs out December 11. As of the latest trackers, the House has passed 3 of the 12 FY27 spending bills and the Senate none.
- The lame-duck Congress can pass full-year bills, another short stopgap, a mix of the two, or nothing. Nothing means a partial shutdown starting December 12.
- Under any stopgap, agencies generally can't start new programs, so deals that need new-year money tend to slip.
- Use the next four weeks to sort your pipeline by funding risk, get answers from contracting officers before the holidays, and keep working with buyers whose money is already in hand.
Most federal agencies are running on a continuing resolution, H.R. 6500, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2027. President Trump signed it on September 2, and it keeps most programs at roughly last year's levels through December 11. Lawmakers return to Washington today, November 9, with about a month to decide what comes next.
For anyone selling to federal agencies, the outcome decides which deals close in the first quarter of FY27 and which move into spring. Here's where things stand, what each outcome would mean, and a simple four-week plan.
Where FY27 funding stands
Congress has to pass 12 regular appropriations bills each year. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's tracker, the House has passed three of them for FY27: Agriculture, Military Construction-VA and National Security-State. The Senate hasn't passed any. Holland & Knight noted in October that the Senate took no comparable floor action before the pre-election recess.
The politics also shifted on November 3. Democrats are expected to control Congress in January, and the current Congress serves until the new one is seated in the first days of January 2027. That gives each side a reason to either finish the work now or wait for the new Congress.
December 11 isn't just a spending deadline. Surface transportation authorities, the National Flood Insurance Program and TSCA fee authority also expire that day, according to Holland & Knight.
Four ways December could go
Holland & Knight considers passing all 12 bills on time unlikely, given the short calendar, and calls a second stopgap realistic. Here are the outcomes vendors should plan for:
- Full-year bills (an omnibus or a few "minibus" packages). Agencies get their FY27 budgets, new programs can start, and procurement shops can plan the rest of the year. This is the best case for new business, though contract actions still take weeks to follow.
- Another short stopgap into January or March. Holland & Knight sees this as a realistic outcome. Agencies keep spending at about last year's rates and generally can't start new programs. Renewals and ongoing work continue; new initiatives wait.
- A mix, or a full-year stopgap. Some agencies could get full-year bills while others stay on temporary funding. A stopgap that runs through September 30 would lock in last year's levels for the whole year. In either case, check agency by agency.
- No deal by December 11. Funding lapses and a partial shutdown begins December 12. In 2018, when a lame-duck Congress couldn't agree on funding, the shutdown started December 22 and lasted 35 days, ending January 25, 2019.
What each outcome means for your Q1 pipeline
Stopgaps slow new work. GAO reports that continuing resolutions limit starting new programs and increasing production. In its review of Defense programs, 36 of 74 surveyed acquisition programs reported schedule effects, including late contract awards. Longer stopgaps, those over three months, led to slower spending early in the year. If your deal depends on a new program or a funding increase, expect it to wait for a full-year bill.
A shutdown stops most new contract actions. As law firm Mayer Brown explains, agencies generally can't award new contracts, exercise options or issue modifications that depend on funds Congress hasn't provided. Contracts that are already fully funded usually continue. Contracting staff paid from lapsed accounts may be unavailable, and agencies can't make payments from those accounts until funding returns. If your work must stop, the contracting officer should issue a written stop-work order.
Not every buyer is affected equally. Agencies covered by an enacted full-year bill, programs with multiyear money and contracts already funded keep moving. Those are the conversations to prioritize if December gets messy.
A four-week plan for federal sellers
- Sort your pipeline by money source. For each open deal, find out whether it depends on FY27 funds, prior-year or multiyear funds, or an existing funded contract. Our government fiscal year calendar helps you line that up against agency timing.
- Ask contracting officers now, not in December. Ask plainly how a stopgap or a lapse would affect the award date and whether anything can be finalized with funds already available. Leave room for "we don't know yet."
- Get options and modifications done early. If an option date or modification falls in mid-December, ask whether it can be handled before the 11th.
- Keep building pipeline for spring. Agencies still plan during uncertainty. Use federal procurement forecasts and upcoming contract expirations to find buyers who will need you once full-year money arrives.
- Prepare for a lapse. If you hold federal contracts, know which ones are fully funded, keep track of any costs from a stoppage, and get every instruction from the contracting officer in writing.
- Keep outreach low-pressure. Program staff are busy with shutdown planning in December. A short note offering something useful, and an easy way to reconnect in January, will be remembered better than a push to close before a deadline nobody controls.
How KSG helps
Funding uncertainty is when federal pipeline tends to stall, because sellers wait for answers instead of building relationships. Kensington Sales Group's B2G lead generation team keeps conversations going with program and contracting staff across federal agencies, so you have qualified meetings ready when full-year money arrives.
Sources: Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Appropriations Watch: FY 2027; Holland & Knight, Beyond the Midterms: Congress Faces Converging Year-End Deadlines (October 9, 2026); ASTHO, Summary of FY27 Continuing Resolution; Gray DC, Congress enters lame duck session following midterm elections (November 7, 2026); GAO, effects of continuing resolutions on programs critical to national security (GAO-26-107065); Mayer Brown, Government Shutdown: A Contractor's Guide; ABC7, A look back at recent federal government shutdowns.